The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its annual decadal global climate update on Wednesday, warning that global temperatures are likely to reach record levels in the next five years, driven by greenhouse gases that retain climate. heat and the natural phenomenon of El Niño. The report warns that there is a 66% chance that the mean annual near-surface temperature between 2023 and 2027 will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C for at least one year. Furthermore, there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and the five years as a whole, will be the warmest on record.
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, we are warning that we will exceed the level of 1.5°C temporarily with increasing frequency,” said the agency’s secretary general.
Petteri Taalas further explained that warming caused by El Niño is expected to occur in the coming months, which will be combined with human-induced climate change. “This will have far-reaching implications for health, food safety, water management and the environment. We have to be prepared,” he said.
There is a 98% chance that, in at least one of the next five years, the temperature record reached in 2016, when an exceptionally strong El Niño event occurred
On the other hand, according to the document, there is only a 32% chance that the average for the entire period as a whole will exceed the 1.5°C threshold. However, the probability of a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C has increased steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, the probability of exceedance was 10%.
“Global average temperatures are expected to continue to rise, moving further and further away from the climate to which we are accustomed,” said the senior scientist at the institution that led the report, the Met Office.
Arctic warming and changes in precipitation
The document includes other key information, including the following:
- The global mean temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 mean. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions for much of the last three years temporarily halted the long-term warming trend. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months. Normally, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year following its onset, which in this case would be 2024.
- Between 2023 and 2027, the global mean annual near-surface temperature is projected to be 1.1°C to 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 mean. This is used as a reference because it was prior to the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.
- Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is projected to be more than three times the global average anomaly when averaged over the next five extended winters in the Northern Hemisphere
- Predicted precipitation patterns for the May–September mean of 2023-2027, compared to the 1991-2020 mean, suggest increased precipitation in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and a reduction in rainfall for this season in the Amazon and parts of Australia.
Paris Agreement
In addition to rising global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are causing further warming and acidification of the oceans, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and an increase in extreme weather conditions. .
The Paris Agreement sets long-term targets to guide all nations to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global temperature rise this century to 2°C, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase further to 1.5°C, thus avoiding or reducing adverse impacts and damage related to global warming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that climate-related risks to ecosystems and humans are greater with global warming of 1.5°C than today, but less than with 2°C.
Reinforcement of meteorological services
The World Meteorological Organization publishes the annual to decadal Global Climate Update in collaboration with designated Global Producing Centers and other contributors. The update offers a synthesis of the temperature predictions for the period 2023-2027.
The new report has been released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress to be held from May 22 to June 2, which will discuss how to strengthen weather and climate services to support adaptation to global warming.
Among the priorities to be discussed are the ongoing Early Warning for All initiative, aimed at protecting the population from increasingly extreme weather conditions, and a new Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Infrastructure to help mitigate climate change. climate.
Source: UN
.