The COVID-19 pandemic has had a serious impact on the health of the population, health systems and the economy, but its long-term effects could be devastating, and not only because of the consequences of the disease that still drags a large percentage of those affected –what is known as persistent COVID–, or due to the appearance or aggravation of mental disorders associated with fear of getting sick and changes in lifestyle.
Now, new research estimates that there are already at least 5.2 million children who have lost a parent or caregiver to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection. If before the pandemic broke out there were around 140 million orphaned children in the world, a previous study (published in July 2021) estimated that 1.5 million children had suffered the loss of a parent or caregiver since March 2020 through April 2021 due to COVID-19.
The new work, which has been published in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, has increased the estimates to more than 2.7 million children for the same period of time, taking into account both the updated figures of deaths from this disease , such as data on excess mortality including indirect deaths related to the pandemic; (July 2021 estimates: 1,562,000 children vs latest estimates: 2,737,300 children).
“Support for orphaned children must be immediately integrated into every national COVID-19 response plan”
The results of this research suggest that, globally, two out of three minors orphaned by COVID-19 are adolescents between the ages of 10 and 17. Evidence has also been confirmed that men are at a much higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than women, with three out of four children globally who suffered the death of a parent during the pandemic losing their His parents.
Risk of poverty, violence, health problems… in orphaned children
Orphanhood has important long-term consequences, especially in countries with fewer economic resources. In fact, children who lose their caregivers are at increased risk of poverty, exploitation, and sexual violence or abuse, as well as developing physical or mental health problems, such as HIV infection, severe distress, and, in certain settings, greater vulnerability to joining violent gangs. This is why researchers have called for evidence-based programs for orphaned children to be urgently included in pandemic response measures.
“We estimate that for every person reported to have died as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, a child is orphaned or loses a caregiver. That’s the equivalent of one child every six seconds facing increased lifetime risk of adversity unless given adequate support early. Therefore, support for orphaned children must be immediately integrated into every national COVID-19 response plan. Such support should focus on three main components: preventing caregiver deaths through equitable coverage, containment and treatment of the COVID-19 vaccine; families that are safe and loving to support affected children (for example, through kinship care, foster care, and adoption), and protect children using evidence-based strategies to reduce the risks of poverty, childhood adversity, and violence. These strategies will help save lives now and establish the global programmatic and financial infrastructure to ensure a better future for children and families around the world,” said Dr. Susan Hillis, lead author of the paper, which completed it. during his tenure at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Dr Juliette Unwin, lead author from Imperial College London, UK, adds: “Sadly, as high as our estimates of orphan and caregiver deaths are, they are likely to be underestimates, and we expect these numbers to increase as more global data on deaths from COVID-19. For example, the WHO estimates that precise data on COVID-19 deaths in Africa is limited, and actual estimates are likely to be 10 times higher than currently reported. Consequently, these unreported deaths mean that COVID-19-related orphanhood and caregiver loss is also drastically underestimated. Real-time updated data suggests that actual totals reached 6.7 million children as of January 2022. While our current study looked at estimates through October 2021, the pandemic is still ongoing worldwide, which It means that orphans related to COVID-19 will also continue to increase.”
Mathematical models to calculate the loss of parents and caregivers
The researchers analyzed mortality and fertility data from the countries that accounted for the highest proportion of deaths from COVID-19 and used mathematical models to extrapolate their findings to global estimates. They estimated the loss of grandparent caregivers using United Nations household composition data for the proportion of adults over 60 years of age residing together with those under 18 years of age, with or without a parent. These proportions were multiplied by deaths associated with COVID-19 in the relevant age group to make a rough estimate of the number of children affected, conservatively estimating that one death resulted in only one child experiencing a caregiver death.
“As high as our estimates of orphan and caregiver deaths are, they are likely to be underestimates and these numbers are likely to increase as more global data on COVID-19 deaths become available.”
During the study period (20 months), the team estimates that at least 3,367,000 children were orphaned worldwide, suffering from the loss of one parent. Another 1,833,300 children lost a grandparent or elderly caregiver who lived with them. Overall, the number of children affected by a caregiver death due to COVID-19 exceeded the number of reported COVID-19 deaths (5.2 million children compared to 5 million COVID-19 deaths).
The number of affected children in the 20 countries studied ranged from 2,400 in Germany to more than 1.9 million in India. Calculations of estimated orphan cases per capita showed that the highest rates were in Peru and South Africa, with 8 and 7 per 1,000 children affected, respectively. In addition, they found that in all the countries analyzed, children were more likely to have lost a father than a mother, with more than three times as many children experiencing the death of a father than a mother (76.5% or 2,581). .300/3,374,900 children who lost their fathers compared to 23.5% or 793,600/3,374,900 who lost mothers).
When they calculated the ages of children who lost a parent in each of the countries studied, they found that adolescents represented a much higher proportion of orphans (ages 10-17 years constituted 63.6% or 2,146,700/3,374). .900 of orphaned children) compared to younger children in all countries. (5-9 years: 21.8%, 736,800/3,374,900; 0-4 years: 14.6%, 491,300/3,374,900).
“It took 10 years for 5 million children to be orphaned by HIV/AIDS, while the same number of children were orphaned by COVID-19 in just two years. These figures do not take into account the last omicron wave, which can increase the real number even more. We need to act quickly to identify the children behind these numbers, so they can get the support they need to thrive,” says lead author Professor Lorraine Sherr of University College London, UK.
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