A new study warns that if current climate policies are maintained, heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by 2100, particularly affecting southern countries and older people.
High temperatures associated with climate change could lead to a significant increase in the number of deaths from heat in Europe in the coming years, according to a new study published in The Lancet Public Health journal. The study assessed the current and future risk of mortality due to extreme temperatures and concluded that if current climate policies are not changed, heat-related deaths could triple by 2100 in Europe, reaching an average of 30 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.
The report notes that this increase in mortality will not be uniform across the European continent, but that southern European countries will be the most affected by climate change, with a significant increase in heat-related deaths. Older people, who are more vulnerable to extreme temperatures, will be particularly at risk.
Unlike previous studies, which often focused on local details or country-specific assessments, especially in Western Europe, this analysis is the first to provide a comprehensive assessment of current and future health risks associated with both hot and cold temperatures across Europe, assessing the projected impact on different regions within countries.
The summer of 2023 was particularly hot in some European regions, such as Spain, where average temperatures on the peninsula reached 23.4 °C, 1.3 °C above the usual average, making it the third warmest summer on record, according to AEMET. The previous year, in 2022, the hottest summer on record was recorded in Europe, with unusually high mortality rates, exceeding 60,000 heat-related deaths.
Spain, Italy and Greece, the countries most vulnerable to heat
Although deaths attributable to cold still significantly outnumber those caused by heat, at 363,809 deaths per year compared with an estimated 43,729 due to high temperatures, under a 3°C global warming scenario – the most pessimistic projection based on current policies – the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could rise to 128,809 by the end of the century.
Estimates of current and future temperature-related mortality were made for four levels of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C), using a combination of 11 different climate models. The study indicates that cold-related deaths are most common in Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries, and least common in Central Europe and parts of the South, with rates varying between 25 and 300 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.
Heat-related deaths range from 0.6 to 47 per 100,000 people, with the lowest rates in the UK and Scandinavian countries, and the highest in Croatia and southernmost regions of Europe.
“We found that deaths in Europe from hot and cold temperatures will increase substantially, as many more heat-related deaths are expected to occur as the climate warms and the population ages, while deaths from cold are declining only slightly in comparison,” said David García-León from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and one of the paper’s lead authors.
“Investment in health infrastructure, the presence of heat and cold preparedness plans, and the quality of the buildings in which we live and work could reduce mortality in a changing climate.”
“Our study also identifies hotspots where the risk of death from high temperatures will increase dramatically over the next decade. There is a critical need to develop more targeted policies to protect these areas and the members of society most at risk from extreme temperatures,” the researcher adds.
The authors of the study acknowledge certain limitations in their analysis. Their results are based on data from urban residents (who tend to be more exposed to thermal stress, especially heat, than those in rural areas), which could lead to a slight overestimation of the figures. In addition, the results do not take into account differences by sex, ethnicity, or the effects on infants, another vulnerable group.
“The results are largely in line with what existing research has shown in multiple contexts around the world. Namely, that temperature extremes do not affect everyone equally, with the elderly and the less well-off being most vulnerable. What is particularly striking is that the authors find clear differences in risk across national borders and also regional clusters of mortality risk,” said Leslie Mabon, Professor of Environmental Systems at The Open University (UK), who was not involved in the study, in statements to SMC UK.
“Temperature gradients do not respect borders, so as the authors point out, this demonstrates how demographic and socioeconomic factors influence the risk we face from temperature extremes. There are mitigation measures we can take, which could be particularly effective if they target the most vulnerable people and places. For example, the study points to investment in health infrastructure, the presence of heat and cold preparedness plans, and the quality of the buildings in which we live and work as factors that could reduce mortality in a changing climate,” the expert concludes.
