As with other technological advances such as robotics, one of the concerns of the human being is whether this progress could end up working against us, at least in the labor market. With Artificial Intelligence in full swing, how much can it replace human action?
A new study called GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models delves into this concern and even establishes a list of trades that are in danger of being absorbed by Artificial Intelligence as it achieves greater productivity.
80% of jobs could be replaced
This study, authored by Tyna Eloundou (OpenAI), Sam Manning (OpenAI, OpenResearch), Pamela Mishkin (OpenAI) and Daniel Rock (University of Pennsylvania), focuses on investigating the implications of extended language models (LLM) and Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPTs), taking the US job market as a reference, and thus see which jobs could be replaced by Artificial Intelligence.
If we take a look at the results, it reveals that about 80% of jobs in the United States could have at least 10% of their job tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while about 19% of workers may be affected at least 50% of their tasks.
The projected effects span all salary levels, with higher-earning jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not limited to industries with the highest recent productivity growth. This analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, around 15% of all worker tasks in the United States could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. By incorporating software and tools built on top of LLM, this share increases to 47-56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on the scale of economic impacts.
“LLMs, like GPTs, exhibit characteristics of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and political implications.”
Jobs that Artificial Intelligence would absorb
The most interesting data comes when specific trades are analyzed to see the risk they may have of being overshadowed by Artificial Intelligence, either by GPT or GPT-driven software, considering these as those in which AI would mean a reduction in the time to complete the task by at least 50%.
By this criteria, these are the jobs most likely to disappear:
- mathematicians
- tax preparers
- Financial quantitative analysts
- Writers and Authors
- Web and digital interface designers
- Accountants and auditors
- News analysts, reporters and journalists
- Legal secretaries and administrative assistants
- Clinical data managers
- Climate change policy analysts
