Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo
Apple analysts often have a bad reputation. They talk nonsense or repeat rumors that have been on Apple websites for a long time. One analyst is an exception to the rule: Ming-Chi Kuo. In recent years, he has become one of the most reliable Apple predictors. What Ming-Chi Kuo sees in his crystal ball often turns out to be correct. How Kuo obtains all this information remains a mystery. Kuo is almost as secretive as the company he writes about. Who is this man anyway?
What Kuo says is almost always correct
We know remarkably little about Kuo, who has a track record that will make you jump. Kuo predicted the 12-inch MacBook, the 4.7- and 5.5-inch iPhone 6 (Plus), the third-generation iPad mini, the cheaper iMac and the plastic-bodied iPhone 5c. He has since made numerous more recent predictions, almost all of which have turned out to be correct.
However, he is also sometimes wrong: the iPhone 5s did not get a round home button and the new Apple TV with motion detection was not released in the fall of 2014. The rest of his predictions are remarkably accurate. Ming-Chi Kuo mainly has contacts within Apple’s supply chain, for example with manufacturers that make components on behalf of Apple. Based on these components, it is easy to determine what Apple’s plans are. Apple needs a great many components for new iPhone functions in order to be able to produce dozens of new iPhones each year.
The analyst bases his predictions primarily on information from the supply chain. He looks at what manufacturers such as Foxconn, Samsung and LG Display are doing and also knows when an iPhone production line is being set up or converted for future functions. Kuo also often discovers early on whether mass production has started for a certain component.
Ming-Chi Kuo as a person
Kuo sends out reports to investors, but rarely steps forward himself. He is therefore rarely seen in photographs. The photo of Kuo speaking at a conference is one of the rare portraits that can be found on the Internet. The photo was probably taken during a DigiTimes conference.
Kuo worked for DigiTimes
Kuo worked for DigiTimes, the Taiwanese news site with a mixed reputation, around 2010. DigiTimes also sources information from the supply chain, but it does things a little differently. The site often bases its work on prototypes that don’t always go into production. That gives us a good idea of ​​what Apple is up to, but it doesn’t mean it actually leads in products that go into mass production and eventually end up in stores.
Kuo now works for an analyst firm, so his current predictions are more focused on Apple’s actual plans. For example, he regularly predicts features that will be in the latest iPhones.
Kuo as a financial analyst
Kuo started working as a financial analyst in 2011. He has since worked at three financial companies that focus on gathering information for investors.
In 2011, he started at Concord Securities, a Taiwanese financial firm. A year later, he moved to KGI Securities, where he became a big star. KGI Securities has been around for over thirty years and is the second largest investment firm in Taiwan.
In 2018, Kuo moved to a new employer, TF International Securities. Initially, there was a perception that Kuo would focus on other tech companies, but he soon resumed his predictions around Apple.
Besides Apple, Kuo also sometimes makes predictions about other technology companies: in 2014, for example, he correctly predicted that Amazon would release its own smartphone.
Ming-Chi Kuo vs Mark Gurman
There is really only one person Ming-Chi Kuo can be compared to and that is journalist Mark Gurman of Bloomberg. Gurman previously worked for the rumor site 9to5Mac and moved to Bloomberg in 2016. There he regularly publishes predictions and previews of future Apple products. The main difference with Kuo is that Gurman seems to get his information more from internal sources within Apple.
However, an interview in DigiTimes from 2010 gave the impression that Kuo also has internal sources at Apple. In this interview, Kuo mentioned a code name that was only known within Apple. If you look at the percentage of correct predictions, Kuo and Gurman have about the same score. Moreover, the statements of the duo are always serious, while with Twitter rumormongers like Jon Prosser you have to puzzle a bit more whether something is not coincidentally meant as a joke or a publicity stunt.
